Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR
For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability mass below (or above) a given threshold value. We show how this approach can be used in real time in the...
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1. Introduction At the quarterly frequency, GDP is regarded as the most important single economic series representing the state of the economy. However, at monthly frequency, there is no single economic series which can cover the overall activities of the economy. The Conference Board's Composite Index of Coincident Indicators (CCI), a composite index of employment, income, output and sales, is...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice
سال: 2016
ISSN: 2336-9205
DOI: 10.1515/jcbtp-2016-0020